Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
